The National Strat-O-Matic Hockey League Newsletter League Established May 1, 1997 Volume #12, Issue #15 - April 3, 2009 ********************************************************************* Current League Officers: Commissioner: Doug Norris Vice-Commissioner: Brian Leahy (7/15/07 to present) Email the whole league: mailto:nshl at yahoogroups dot com NSHL Chat List: mailto:nshlchat at yahoogroups dot com Web Page Administrator: Guy Caron League Web Site: http://nshl.org Files Adminstrator: Brian Leahy / Tom Vinacci League Files Site: http://www.highrantdistrict.com/SOM/NSHL Team Websites: Capital City Cougars: http://members.tripod.com/~CapCity/ Seattle Rainiers: http://math.colorado.edu/~norrisdt/rainiers/rainiers.html ********************************************************************* LET THE GAMES BEGIN! The playoff league file will be out shortly - Brian's been working on it diligently (and I've been a pain in the butt to him lately so please be patient :-) NOTE: Computer-only players can NOT play in the Farley Cup playoffs. Aside from that, players are limited to their actual NHL games played in the playoffs. I will roll an injury chance after each postseason game. Take note of the injuries present at the start of the quarterfinal series, listed at the bottom of the newsletter. NOTE: Please re-read the preceding note. Interesting predictions from my algorithms, which shows one thing - a lot of good matchups in the conference quarterfinals this year! Even Vancouver - who rolled to a 68-13-1 record (and 137 points!) only has a 93% chance of advancing. Now you know why it's so hard to win the Farley Cup. ********************************************************************* EASTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINAL MATCHUPS: Here are the games predictions based on a random sample of 10,000 simulated series using the Norris Power Index. Note that these take into account historical performance only and do not include short-term matchups or injuries/suspensions: #8 Florida Hellcats at #1 St. Michael's Privateers PREDICTION: St. Michael's in five games (St. Michael's wins 82.16% of series) #7 Corner Creek Green Calves at #2 Pittsburgh Hornets PREDICTION: Pittsburgh in six games (Pittsburgh wins 58.52% of series) #6 Long Island Berserkers at #3 Montreal Wanderers PREDICTION: Montreal in seven games (Montreal wins 52.46% of series) #5 Brooklyn Fourteenth at #4 Quebec City Patriotes PREDICTION: Quebec City in six games (Quebec City wins 53.32% of series) ********************************************************************* WESTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINAL MATCHUPS: Here are the games predictions based on a random sample of 10,000 simulated series using the Norris Power Index. Note that these take into account historical performance only and do not include short-term matchups or injuries/suspensions: #8 Capital City Cougars at #1 Vancouver Whitecaps PREDICTION: Vancouver in five games (Vancouver wins 93.01% of series) #7 Houston Aeros at #2 Topeka Tarantulas PREDICTION: Topeka in seven games (Topeka wins 52.98% of series) #6 Pittsburgh Sound Chasers at #3 Nevada Thunder PREDICTION: Pittsburgh in seven games (Pittsburgh wins 51.77% of series) #5 Fort Garry Fiddler Crabs at #4 Seattle Sasquatch PREDICTION: Fort Garry in six games (Fort Garry wins 54.84% of series) ********************************************************************* SUBMIT YOUR TROPHY NOMINEES! Please submit your nominees for the NSHL's 2009 awards ballot by April 15th. You may submit as many nominees for a "name" trophy as you would like - so long as you don't get ridiculous. Here are the trophies to be voted on this spring: GRETZKY TROPHY (Awarded to the league's most valuable player) SAWCHUK TROPHY (Awarded to the league's top goaltender) ORR TROPHY (Awarded to the league's top defenseman) LEMIEUX TROPHY (Awarded to the league's top first-year player) BLAKE TROPHY (Awarded to the league's top coach) GAINEY TROPHY (Awarded to the league's top defensive forward) HARVEY TROPHY (Awarded to the league's top defensive defenseman) PARENT TROPHY (Awarded to the comeback player of the year) NORRIS TROPHY (Awarded to the owner/associate who best exemplifies the spririt of the league and its members) For the league's postseason all-star team, please nominate one player from each position (left wing, centre, right wing, left defense, right defense and goal) from your team. ********************************************************************* OVERUSAGE PENALTIES: Brian and I are independently reviewing overusage results for 2008-09, and penalties will be assigned shortly (we will run them past the review board first). Be prepared! ********************************************************************* WEEK TWENTY-ONE RESULTS: Houston 1, at Buffalo 2 BUF Rick DiPietro - twenty saves, 5/5 GR BUF Dion Phaneuf - goal, four hits BUF Fernando Pisani - game-winning goal, three takeaways Minneapolis 3, at Brooklyn 4 BRK Barret Jackman - power-play goal, two assists, two takeaways BRK Martin Biron - twenty-seven saves, 6/7 GR MIN Alexander Edler - two assists, takeaway, two hits Quebec City 3, at Capital City 2 (SO) QCP Anton Volchenkov - two assists QCP Jean-Sebastien Giguere - forty-two saves, 4/5 GR, 2-of-3 in shootout CCC Daniel Alfredsson - goal, assist, shootout goal Pittsburgh Sound Chasers 4, at Corner Creek 1 PIT Jarome Iginla - two goals, assist, takeaway PIT Cory Stillman - three assists, takeaway, hit PIT Martin Brodeur - twenty-six saves, 2/3 GR Seattle Sasquatch 3, at Florida 4 (SO) FLO David Booth - goal, shootout goal FLO Chris Kunitz - shorthanded goal SES Ty Conklin - twenty-six saves, 8/10 GR, 4-of-5 in shootout Pittsburgh Hornets 3, at Fort Garry 4 (OT) FGF Marian Hossa - power-play goal, assist PIH Brian Campbell - power-play goal, assist FGF Pavel Kubina - two assists, three takeaways Montreal 6, at Hampton Roads 2 MON Pascal Dupuis - two goals, assist MON Devin Setoguchi - two goals, takeaway MON Corey Crawford - twenty-eight saves, 7/9 GR St. Michael's 2, at Houston 4 HOU Simon Gagne - power-play goal, two assists, takeaway HOU Nicklas Lidstrom - goal, two assists HOU Tomas Vokoun - thirty-nine saves, 7/9 GR Topeka 4, at Long Island 2 TPK Matthew Lombardi - two goals TPK Wade Dubielewicz - thirty-four saves, 4/6 GR TPK Alexander Radulov - goal, two takeaways Hampton Roads 1, at Lyndonville 3 LYN Ryan Miller - twenty-four saves, 6/7 GR LYN Jay McClement - goal, two takeaways LYN Bryan McCabe - assist, two takeaways, four hits Nevada 2, at Manayunk 3 MAN Marco Sturm - goal, assist MAN Roman Hamrlik - assist, two takeaways, two hits MAN Dany Sabourin - thirty-nine saves, 4/6 GR Florida 5, at Minneapolis 1 FLO Jason LaBarbera - thirty-four saves, 4/4 GR FLO Chris Kunitz - power-play goal, assist, hit FLO Vaclav Prospal - power-play goal, assist, hit Vancouver 1, at Montreal 2 MON Josh Harding - thirty-two saves, 5/6 GR VAW Tyler Weiman - thirty saves, 4/5 GR MON Nikolai Zherdev - game-winning goal, takeaway Long Island 3, at Nevada 4 LIB Vincent Lecavalier - three goals NEV Miroslav Satan - two goals NEV Martin Gerber - seventeen saves, 6/7 GR Corner Creek 4, at North Calgary 3 CGC Ray Whitney - goal, assist NCH Brad Stuart - assist, two takeaways, three hits CGC Daniel Sedin - power-play goal Capital City 1, at Pittsburgh Hornets 2 (SO) PIH Brent Johnson - thirty-three saves, 4/4 GR, 3-of-3 in shootout PIH Tyler Kennedy - goal CCC Todd White - power-play goal, hit Stone Harbor 1, at Pittsburgh Sound Chasers 3 PIT Jarome Iginla - game-winning power-play goal, takeaway PIT Daniel Girardi - power-play goal, three hits SHS Henrik Lundqvist - thirty-seven saves, 11/13 GR Fort Garry 2, at Quebec City 5 QCP Olli Jokinen - goal, two assists QCP Jochen Hecht - goal, assist, two takeaways, hit QCP Jean-Sebastien Giguere - thirty-one saves, 7/9 GR Seattle Rainiers 2, at St. Michael's 3 STM Tim Thomas - thirty-five saves, 9/10 GR STM Erik Cole - two goals STM Jean-Pierre Dumont - two assists Buffalo 2, at Seattle Rainiers 6 SEA Chris Drury - power-play goal, two assists, takeaway, 10/13 faceoffs SEA Dany Heatley - power-play goal, two assists, takeaway BUF Dion Phaneuf - two goals, hit Brooklyn 3, at Seattle Sasquatch 7 SES Jeff Carter - two goals, two assists SES Marc Savard - three power-play goals SES Kristian Huselius - four assists North Calgary 3, at Stone Harbor 2 NCH Nathan Horton - two goals, hit NCH Miikka Kiprusoff - thirty-four saves, 5/7 GR SHS Henrik Lundqvist - twenty-six saves, 4/5 GR Manayunk 1, at Topeka 3 TPK Wade Dubielewicz - thirty-five saves, 4/4 GR TPK Ilya Kovalchuk - goal, assist TPK Tobias Enstrom - assist, four takeaways Lyndonville 2, at Vancouver 7 VAW Mats Sundin - three goals, assist VAW Patrick Sharp - two goals VAW Mark Streit - three assists ********************************************************************* NSHL SKATER OF THE WEEK (WEEK 21): (to be determined) +/- SOG G A PIM PP SH FO-W AC IT TA HIT SP AS NSHL PLAYERS OF THE WEEK: Week 1/2: Martin St. Louis, Buffalo Bulldogs Week 3/4: Alexander Ovechkin, Brooklyn Fourteenth Week 5/6: Alexander Ovechkin, Brooklyn Fourteenth Week 7/8: Marco Sturm, Manayunk Bullies Week 9/10: Pavel Datsyuk, St. Michael's Privateers Week 11/12: Henrik Zetterberg, Vancouver Whitecaps Week 13/14: Alexander Ovechkin, Brooklyn Fourteenth Week 15/16: Mike Knuble, Manayunk Bullies ********************************************************************* NSHL GOALTENDER OF THE WEEK (WEEK 21): (to be determined) MIN SHOTS GA ENG GR GRS NSHL GOALTENDERS OF THE WEEK: Week 1/2: Martin Brodeur, Pittsburgh Sound Chasers Week 3/4: Evgeni Nabokov, Long Island Berserkers Week 5/6: Ilya Bryzgalov, Pittsburgh Hornets Week 7/8: Miikka Kiprusoff, North Calgary Hawks Week 9/10: Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Nevada Thunder Week 11/12: Wade Dubielewicz, Topeka Tarantulas Week 13/14: Marc-Andre Fleury, Seattle Sasquatch Week 15/16: Tim Thomas, St. Michael's Privateers ********************************************************************* CALENDAR OF EVENTS: April 3: conference quarterfinals begin! April 15: all conference quarterfinal games must be reported ********************************************************************* 2008-09 REGULAR SEASON LEAGUE STANDINGS: NORTHEAST DIVISION GP W L OL SL Pts Pct GF GA Home Road Pittsburgh Hornets 82 50 24 4 4 108 0.659 259 229 26-11- 2- 2 24-13- 2- 2 Brooklyn Fourteenth 82 39 30 3 10 91 0.555 269 253 23-12- 0- 6 16-18- 3- 4 Long Island Berserkers 82 41 34 5 2 89 0.543 268 263 19-17- 3- 2 22-17- 2- 0 Corner Creek Green Cal 82 42 36 1 3 88 0.537 256 246 22-18- 0- 1 20-18- 1- 2 Buffalo Bulldogs 82 34 44 0 4 72 0.439 232 271 18-20- 0- 3 16-24- 0- 1 Lyndonville Blades 82 30 47 2 3 65 0.396 218 270 17-23- 0- 1 13-24- 2- 2 ATLANTIC DIVISION GP W L OL SL Pts Pct GF GA Home Road St. Michael's Privatee 82 53 22 2 5 113 0.689 290 192 33- 6- 1- 1 20-16- 1- 4 Montreal Wanderers 82 44 29 5 4 97 0.591 244 245 25-13- 2- 1 19-16- 3- 3 Quebec City Patriotes 82 44 35 1 2 91 0.555 264 242 23-16- 1- 1 21-19- 0- 1 Florida Hellcats 82 40 40 2 0 82 0.500 216 254 19-21- 1- 0 21-19- 1- 0 Manayunk Bullies 82 35 43 2 2 74 0.451 212 275 18-21- 1- 1 17-22- 1- 1 Stone Harbor Sound 82 21 56 1 4 47 0.287 188 287 8-30- 0- 3 13-26- 1- 1 NORTHWEST DIVISION GP W L OL SL Pts Pct GF GA Home Road Vancouver Whitecaps 82 68 13 0 1 137 0.835 332 169 35- 6- 0- 0 33- 7- 0- 1 Nevada Thunder 82 50 25 3 4 107 0.652 272 246 24-11- 2- 4 26-14- 1- 0 Seattle Sasquatch 82 49 26 1 6 105 0.640 263 224 29- 9- 1- 2 20-17- 0- 4 Fort Garry Fiddler Cra 82 49 27 0 6 104 0.634 285 227 22-15- 0- 4 27-12- 0- 2 Seattle Rainiers 82 39 33 5 5 88 0.537 257 251 19-19- 2- 1 20-14- 3- 4 North Calgary Hawks 82 24 48 5 5 58 0.354 205 304 8-26- 2- 5 16-22- 3- 0 CENTRAL DIVISION GP W L OL SL Pts Pct GF GA Home Road Topeka Tarantulas 82 52 27 1 2 107 0.652 267 226 27-11- 1- 2 25-16- 0- 0 Pittsburgh Sound Chase 82 47 30 3 2 99 0.604 266 233 23-14- 2- 2 24-16- 1- 0 Houston Aeros 82 45 31 2 4 96 0.585 285 243 27-12- 1- 1 18-19- 1- 3 Capital City Cougars 82 35 27 6 14 90 0.549 241 240 18-15- 3- 5 17-12- 3- 9 Hampton Roads Hounds 82 33 44 3 2 71 0.433 211 291 16-21- 3- 1 17-23- 0- 1 Minneapolis Massasauga 82 20 53 4 5 49 0.299 181 300 9-30- 2- 0 11-23- 2- 5 ********************************************************************* 2008-09 EXPANDED LEAGUE STATISTICS: EXPANDED STATISTICS Total Home Road NORTHEAST DIVISION REG OVT SHO REG OVT SHO REG OVT SHO Pittsburgh Hornets 41-24 2- 4 7- 4| 20-11 2- 2 4- 2| 21-13 0- 2 3- 2 Brooklyn Fourteenth 37-30 1- 3 1-10| 23-12 0- 0 0- 6| 14-18 1- 3 1- 4 Long Island Berserkers 37-34 1- 5 3- 2| 16-17 1- 3 2- 2| 21-17 0- 2 1- 0 Corner Creek Green Calv 35-36 3- 1 4- 3| 19-18 1- 0 2- 1| 16-18 2- 1 2- 2 Buffalo Bulldogs 24-44 6- 0 4- 4| 14-20 2- 0 2- 3| 10-24 4- 0 2- 1 Lyndonville Blades 26-47 2- 2 2- 3| 16-23 1- 0 0- 1| 10-24 1- 2 2- 2 ATLANTIC DIVISION REG OVT SHO REG OVT SHO REG OVT SHO St. Michael's Privateer 46-22 4- 2 3- 5| 27- 6 4- 1 2- 1| 19-16 0- 1 1- 4 Montreal Wanderers 40-29 0- 5 4- 4| 23-13 0- 2 2- 1| 17-16 0- 3 2- 3 Quebec City Patriotes 37-35 1- 1 6- 2| 18-16 0- 1 5- 1| 19-19 1- 0 1- 1 Florida Hellcats 30-40 1- 2 9- 0| 15-21 0- 1 4- 0| 15-19 1- 1 5- 0 Manayunk Bullies 26-43 3- 2 6- 2| 13-21 2- 1 3- 1| 13-22 1- 1 3- 1 Stone Harbor Sound 16-56 2- 1 3- 4| 6-30 1- 0 1- 3| 10-26 1- 1 2- 1 NORTHWEST DIVISION REG OVT SHO REG OVT SHO REG OVT SHO Vancouver Whitecaps 63-13 2- 0 3- 1| 34- 6 0- 0 1- 0| 29- 7 2- 0 2- 1 Nevada Thunder 44-25 3- 3 3- 4| 22-11 2- 2 0- 4| 22-14 1- 1 3- 0 Seattle Sasquatch 35-26 5- 1 9- 6| 22- 9 5- 1 2- 2| 13-17 0- 0 7- 4 Fort Garry Fiddler Crab 42-27 4- 0 3- 6| 19-15 2- 0 1- 4| 23-12 2- 0 2- 2 Seattle Rainiers 33-33 3- 5 3- 5| 15-19 3- 2 1- 1| 18-14 0- 3 2- 4 North Calgary Hawks 20-48 3- 5 1- 5| 7-26 0- 2 1- 5| 13-22 3- 3 0- 0 CENTRAL DIVISION REG OVT SHO REG OVT SHO REG OVT SHO Topeka Tarantulas 41-27 4- 1 7- 2| 19-11 2- 1 6- 2| 22-16 2- 0 1- 0 Pittsburgh Sound Chaser 40-30 4- 3 3- 2| 20-14 1- 2 2- 2| 20-16 3- 1 1- 0 Houston Aeros 39-31 0- 2 6- 4| 24-12 0- 1 3- 1| 15-19 0- 1 3- 3 Capital City Cougars 28-27 4- 6 3-14| 15-15 2- 3 1- 5| 13-12 2- 3 2- 9 Hampton Roads Hounds 26-44 1- 3 6- 2| 11-21 0- 3 5- 1| 15-23 1- 0 1- 1 Minneapolis Massasauga 18-53 2- 4 0- 5| 9-30 0- 2 0- 0| 9-23 2- 2 0- 5 ********************************************************************* 2008-09 NSHL NORRIS POWER INDEX To calculate the predicted margin of victory for an upcoming game, take the NPI of the home team, subtract the NPI of the visiting team, and add the calculated home-ice advantage (currently 0.070 goals). NPI: projected "power" of the given team VAR: variation in a team's NPI. SOS: strength of schedule (average NPI of opponents to date) NORRIS POWER INDEX NPI VAR SOS LW 1. Vancouver Whitecaps 2.217 5.885 -0.036 1 2. St. Michael's Privateers 1.112 7.301 -0.148 2 3. Fort Garry Fiddler Crabs 0.828 7.639 0.071 3 4. Topeka Tarantulas 0.684 6.814 -0.038 4 5. Seattle Sasquatch 0.629 5.170 0.086 5 6. Houston Aeros 0.525 7.000 -0.001 6 7. Pittsburgh Sound Chasers 0.467 5.918 -0.022 8 8. Nevada Thunder 0.417 6.404 0.070 7 9. Pittsburgh Hornets 0.408 6.621 -0.108 9 10. Quebec City Patriotes 0.234 7.534 -0.109 11 11. Seattle Rainiers 0.164 5.788 0.114 13 12. Brooklyn Fourteenth 0.081 8.832 -0.084 10 13. Corner Creek Green Calves 0.077 8.604 -0.080 12 14. Montreal Wanderers 0.005 7.208 -0.067 16 15. Capital City Cougars -0.041 5.529 0.046 14 16. Long Island Berserkers -0.090 8.339 -0.068 15 17. Florida Hellcats -0.503 7.484 -0.055 18 18. Buffalo Bulldogs -0.558 5.268 -0.011 17 19. Lyndonville Blades -0.788 6.050 0.005 20 20. Manayunk Bullies -0.823 7.535 -0.028 21 21. Hampton Roads Hounds -0.834 7.683 0.098 19 22. North Calgary Hawks -1.280 9.209 0.195 22 23. Stone Harbor Sound -1.465 6.885 0.019 24 24. Minneapolis Massasauga -1.466 5.879 0.150 23 ********************************************************************* INCENTIVE POINTS: Incentive points are not discretionary, and are assigned strictly per formula without respect to extenuating circumstances. Incentive points may be appealed through the Review Board. CUMULATIVE INCENTIVE POINTS: BUF 1 IP FLO -1 IP HOU -3 IP LIB -1 IP MAN -4 IP MIN 2 IP NEV 5 IP PIH -2 IP PIT 2 IP STM -1 IP SES -1 IP TPK -1 IP VAW -3 IP ********************************************************************* ASSOCIATE LIST: SINCE GP Dean Engemoen June 16, 2007 30 Dale Ripley September 11, 2007 28 Francois Lessard December 10, 2006 8 Steve Kramer December 13, 2004 0 Greg Ralls December 14, 2004 0 Andrew Smith November 19, 2005 0 J.J. Schrems May 1, 2006 0 Scott Bruner June 18, 2007 0 Steve Beren February 2, 2008 0 If you're still an active associate, and aren't on this list, please get in contact with me. Thanks! Doug ********************************************************************* CONFERENCE QUARTERFINAL INJURY REPORT: This will change with every playoff game, and will be announced to the relevant owners at that time. BRK - Mike Commodore out 4 games through Game Four, ECQF - Adam Hall out 6 games through Game Six, ECQF - Aaron Johnson out 12 games through Game Five, ECSF - Brad Winchester out 1 game through Game One, ECQF CCC - Joe Corvo out 1 game through Game One, WCQF - Pavol Demitra out 1 game through Game One, WCQF - Paul Martin out 1 game through Game One, WCQF CGC - Brett Lebda out 1 game through Game One, ECQF - Dennis Seidenberg out 11 games through Game Four, ECSF HOU - Rob Blake out 1 game through Game One, WCQF - Peter Forsberg out 71 games through Farley Cup Finals - Justin Williams out 22 games through Game Seven, WCSF LIB - Chris Campoli out 26 games through Game Four, EC Finals - Johan Franzen out 1 game through Game One, ECQF - Jiri Hudler out 1 game through Game One, ECQF - Mikko Koivu out 2 games through Game Two, ECQF - Mike Komisarek out 3 game through Game One, ECQF NEV - Drew Stafford out 3 games through Game Three, WCQF PIH - Colby Armstrong out 1 game through Game One, ECQF - Mark Eaton out 22 games through Game One, FC Finals PIT - Josh Gorges out 1 game through Game One, WCQF - Mattias Norstrom out 4 games through Game Four, WCQF STM - Todd Bertuzzi out 3 games through Game Three, ECQF - Martin Gelinas out 2 games through Game Two, ECQF SES - Kris Beech out 22 games through Game One, FC Finals - Rod Brind'amour out 4 games through Game Four, WCQF - Bobby Ryan out 3 games through Game Three, WCQF - Teemu Selanne out 15 games through Game One, WC Finals TPK - Bret Hedican out 3 games through Game Three, WCQF - Dominic Moore out 2 games through Game Two, WCQF ********************************************************************* TRANSACTIONS: All free agents *must* play in at least six of your team's games the following biweek. Violation of this results in the player being released immediately. ********************************************************************* League Governing Boards Responsibilities of the following governing boards are outlined in the Constitution. Review Board Tom Vinacci, Buffalo Bulldogs Patrick Shea, Long Island Berserkers Mark McNeil, Lyndonville Blades Constitutional Council Head: Patrick Shea (patrickjshea at verizon dot net) Doug Norris, Commissioner Brian Leahy, Vice-Commissioner Andy Bartalone, St. Michael's owner (vacant) *********************************************************************